دانشگاه شهید بهشتی مجله تاریخ ایران 2008-7357 18 2 2025 09 23 The Industrial policies of Mohammad Mosaddegh's government and their impact on the oil-free economy strategy سیاست‌های صنعتی دولت محمد مصدق و اثرات آنها بر استراتژی اقتصاد بدون نفت 81 106 106060 10.48308/irhj.2025.238865.1404 FA نجمه سجادی دانشجوی دکتری گروه تاریخ، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران. ایران. علی بیگدلی استاد گروه تاریخ، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران. Journal Article 2025 02 22 During the latter half of Mohammad Mosaddegh, the oil-free economy strategy was adopted by government officials as an economic approach—without prior planning and in response to the British oil sanctions. Under this strategy, various economic sectors were reviewed. However, the government's primary emphasis was on industrial development, as industry—as a productive and job-creating sector—could significantly influence the advancement of other sectors and help achieve the objectives of the oil-free economy strategy. The present study, drawing on archival documents and library resources through a descriptive-analytical approach, seeks to answer the following questions: What were the government's industrial policies, and what impacts did they have on the oil-free economy strategy? The historical documents and sources used in this research indicate that these industrial policies functioned as a double-edged sword. So that these policies simultaneously stimulated industrial activity, boosted manufacturing output, increased the number of firms and factories, and enhanced industrial investment—all contributing to sanctions resilience—yet paradoxically fostered various dependencies: reliance on imported machinery, proliferation of assembly plants, dependence on foreign experts, and need for external capital. These outcomes fundamentally contradicted the oil-free economy's core principles. Introduction In 1950 (1329 SH), Iran witnessed the successful culmination of the oil nationalization movement – a major turning point in the country’s modern political and economic history. The passage of the nationalization bill not only catapulted Mohammad Mosaddegh to the office of Prime Minister but also triggered a range of international reactions, including a series of crippling oil sanctions. While the movement’s supporters were initially optimistic, believing that Western dependence on Iranian oil, along with inter-Allied tensions between Britain and the United States, would shield Iran from serious repercussions, the reality soon proved otherwise. Mosaddegh’s government quickly realized that although the United States might prevent Britain from launching a military intervention, it would not support Iranian oil exports either. This strategic deadlock marked a decisive moment that prompted Mosaddegh and his economic advisors to reevaluate the country’s financial and development strategy. Faced with a shrinking budget and declining oil revenues, they began shifting their focus toward building a more resilient and self-sufficient national economy based on non-oil sectors. This shift gave rise to a broad economic framework known as the “oil-free economy”. Beginning in August 1951, the Mosaddegh administration moved to replace previous economic policies with new ones, centered around revitalizing agriculture, expanding industrial capacity, rebalancing foreign trade, and managing the national budget with reduced reliance on oil income. The oil-free economy quickly became more than a set of policies – it emerged as a guiding vision for national development in a time of crisis. Mosaddegh and the technocrats surrounding him were strongly influenced by the economic philosophy of Friedrich List, who argued that every nation should develop an autonomous and robust national economy. List advocated for active state intervention in the form of industrialization, agricultural modernization, and protection of local production. His emphasis on reducing imports, promoting exports, and achieving economic independence found a receptive audience in Mosaddegh’s cabinet. Consequently, the industrial sector received significant attention as a key engine for economic growth and employment. New industrial strategies were approved, with the hope that a strong domestic industry would support other sectors and contribute to the success of the oil-free economic vision. Materials And Methods The focus on the industrial sector as a major generator of wealth and employment during Mosaddegh’s premiership was not without historical precedent. Earlier, during Reza Shah’s rule, industrial development had also been a top priority. In both cases, the inspiration stemmed largely from observing Germany’s economic transformation. Notably, the German economist Hjalmar Schacht was invited to Iran in both periods to provide economic advice and planning support. However, the critical difference in Mosaddegh’s era lay in the strategic context: industrial policy was not pursued in isolation but rather embedded within a larger, holistic economic framework – the oil-free economy. This overarching strategy informed all sectors of national planning and defined the government’s approach to development. It was backed by a cohort of technocrats who believed that Iran’s economic sovereignty required bold new thinking, especially amid the collapse of oil revenues. The present research aims to evaluate the alignment of Mosaddegh’s industrial policies with the core principles of the oil-free economy strategy. To do this, the study adopts a descriptive-analytical research method. First, it conducts a descriptive review of Mosaddegh-era industrial policies, relying on underused archival sources, economic reports, government decrees, and parliamentary records from the early 1950s. Then, it moves to an analytical phase, evaluating the effects and implications of these policies on Iran’s industrial development. Particular attention is given to identifying both the achievements and the contradictions that emerged during implementation. For example, while industrial growth was notable, questions remain about the level of dependence on foreign capital, technical expertise, and imported machinery. By analyzing these elements, the research is aimed at offering a nuanced understanding of whether Mosaddegh’s industrial policies truly advanced the vision of an oil-independent economy – or whether, in practice, they reproduced new forms of economic dependency under the guise of independence. Result and Discussion This research has sought to examine, in a detailed and structured manner, the full set of industrial policies implemented by the government of Mohammad Mosaddegh. These policies formed a subset of the broader economic measures undertaken to execute the “oil-free economy” strategy, which was seen as a way out of the economic crisis imposed by international oil sanctions. By studying historical documents, economic reports, and data from that period, the study has highlighted the short-term but measurable impacts of these industrial policies, even within the limited lifespan of Mosaddegh’s administration. Concrete shifts were evident in the industrial sector. The government’s deliberate focus on activating domestic industry produced marked improvements in industrial output and performance. There was a notable surplus in non-oil trade, an increase in the production levels of key manufactured goods, growth in the number and capacity of workshops and industrial plants, a rise in mining operations, and an overall surge in investments across various industrial sub-sectors. These outcomes point to a policy direction that, at least initially, yielded productive results aligned with the intended economic recovery. However, when examined more deeply, these policies also reveal certain inconsistencies and contradictions in relation to the broader principles of the oil-free economy. These contradictions were not widely acknowledged at the time, due to the government’s focus on escaping immediate economic collapse. Yet, they remain critical to understanding the longer-term implications of Mosaddegh’s strategy. One of the key contradictions lies in the financial foundations of industrial expansion. Despite aiming for independence from oil revenue, the government turned early on to foreign financial aid – particularly from the United States – through programs like the Truman Doctrine’s Point Four initiative. A significant share of funding for industrial development thus came from international assistance rather than domestic sources. Besides, large volumes of industrial equipment and machinery were imported from foreign countries. In several cases, raw materials and primary exports from Iran were bartered or sold in exchange for industrial tools and technologies. This pattern reinforced a dependency on external economic systems, undermining the spirit of the oil-free economy’s original goal: autonomy. Another notable issue was the reliance on foreign expertise. The government entrusted many critical phases of industrial development to foreign engineers, technicians, and consultants. While this reliance was not unprecedented in Iranian history, it expanded significantly during Mosaddegh’s tenure. The result was an increase in assembly-based industries and imported production models, which did not encourage sustainable, locally rooted technological or scientific independence. In essence, this aspect of Mosaddegh’s industrial strategy not only failed to reduce Iran’s dependency on foreign powers but also shifted that dependency – from the British-dominated oil industry to other sectors dominated by new foreign actors, particularly the United States. Therefore, some industrial policies – though well-intentioned – stood in clear tension with the very strategy they were meant to advance. Conclusions The industrial policies pursued under Mohammad Mosaddegh’s administration proved to be a double-edged sword, producing both constructive achievements and unintended setbacks. This research has attempted to present a balanced evaluation of both the strengths and weaknesses of these policies, particularly within the framework of the broader oil-free economy strategy. On the one hand, the administration succeeded in sparking industrial growth within a remarkably short period. Statistical improvements in production, trade balance, investment, and factory output suggest that the government’s policy focus bore tangible results and held potential for further success – had the administration lasted longer. On the other hand, these developments did not result in a fundamentally self-reliant industrial system. The government lacked access to essential resources such as sufficient domestic “capital”, advanced “technology”, and an “experienced technical workforce”. As a result, rather than reducing Iran’s reliance on foreign entities, the government simply redirected it – from dependence on British oil interests to new industrial dependencies, particularly involving the United States and other foreign suppliers and advisors. Ultimately, the long-term effects of this shift in dependency became more evident in the years following Mosaddegh’s fall from power. The policies he initiated did not fully fulfill the promise of economic independence that the oil-free economy had set out to achieve. در نیمۀ دوم دورۀ نخست‌وزیری محمد مصدق، اقتصاد بدون نفت به عنوان یک استراتژی اقتصادی، بدون برنامه‌ریزی قبلی و در مواجهه با تحریم‌های نفتی انگلستان در دستور کار دست‌اندرکاران دولت قرار گرفت. براساس این استراتژی، بخش‌های مختلف اقتصادی شامل کشاورزی، صنعت، تجارت خارجی و بودجه مورد بازبینی قرار گرفتند، اما تأکید اصلی دولت بر توسعۀ بخش صنعت بود؛ زیرا صنعت به ‌عنوان یکی از بخش‌های مولد و اشتغال‌زا، می‌توانست بر توسعۀ بخش‌های دیگر و همچنین تحقق اهداف مدّ نظر در استراتژی اقتصاد بدون نفت تأثیرگذار باشد؛ به گونه‌ای که مصدق در زمان ارائۀ برنامه کابینه دوم خود به مجلس، یکی از وظایف مهم دولت را اصلاح امور اقتصادی از راه افزایش تولید داخلی، ایجاد کار، اصلاح قوانین پولی و بهره‌برداری از معادن عنوان کرد. مقاله حاضر با تکیه بر اسناد و منابع کتابخانه‌ای و با رویکرد توصیفی-تحلیلی تلاش دارد به این پرسش پاسخ دهد که سیاست‌های صنعتی دولت چه بوده و چه تأثیراتی بر استراتژی اقتصاد بدون نفت داشته است؟ اسناد و منابع تاریخی مورد استفاده در این پژوهش نشان از آن دارند که این سیاست‌های صنعتی همانند شمشیری دولبه عمل کرده‌اند؛ به‌ گونه‌ای که همزمان با ایجاد تحرک در بخش صنعت، افزایش تولید کالاهای صنعتی، افزایش تعداد شرکت‌ها و کارخانجات، افزایش میزان سرمایه‌گذاری‌ صنعتی و به‌طور کلی کمک به تاب‌آوری در مقابل تحریم‌های نفتی، ابعاد و اشکال مختلفی از وابستگی از جمله وابستگی به تجهیزات صنعتی وارداتی و شکل‌گیری کارخانجات مونتاژی، وابستگی به متخصصان خارجی و وابستگی به کمک‌ها و سرمایه‌های خارجی را در پی داشتند؛ پیامدی که اساساً در تضاد با ایدۀ اقتصاد بدون نفت بود.

https://irhj.sbu.ac.ir/article_106060_72b49ac6ef63e423b48db377cd665f58.pdf