نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
استادیار گروه تاریخ،دانشکده علوم اجتماعی،دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This study, with an analytical-historical approach and using the method of document content analysis, examines the performance of the Economic Council in dealing with the inflation crisis in 1976 and 1977. Using primary documents including the minutes of the Economic Council meetings, the Central Bank reports, and the Fifth Development Plan, the role of this institution in designing and implementing anti-inflation policies has been objectively and scientifically evaluated. The findings show that the main root of the inflation crisis was the unprecedented increase in oil revenues and the accelerated revision of the Fifth Development Plan, which led to the injection of increasing liquidity into an economy with limited absorption capacity and created conditions similar to the Dutch disease. These conditions were accompanied by increased dependence on imports, weakening tradable sectors, and the absorption of resources into unproductive sectors. The Economic Council identified the roots of inflation by adopting fiscal and monetary contractionary policies, including the revision of development projects and control of bank credits. However, the implementation of these policies faced structural, institutional and political obstacles. The failure of anti-inflationary policies was rooted in the fundamental contradiction between the technocratic-economic logic and the political-prestige logic that dominated the economic system of that period. This contradiction was manifested in three main axes: the priority of implementing large-scale projects over contractionary policies, incoordination and competition of executive bodies in allocating resources, and the diversion of bank credits from the production sector to unproductive activities. But the main question of this research is why, despite the recognition of the roots of inflation by the technocrats present in the Economic Council, the policies adopted failed to control inflation? Was this failure due to technical errors, weakness in policy implementation, or structural and political factors?
کلیدواژهها [English]
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